Political Science  Master Class Policy and Budgetary Forecasting

I think there is a belief that the only way to do forecasting is with some econometricmodels or mathematical models—I would say that is not the case. Admittedly you needdata to make some projections about the future (exactly whether we are addressing thenear-term or long-term future is not always clear). Anticipating, projecting, forecasting arepart of policy-making. If we anticipate (based on available data) a big surge in seniorcitizens as an age cohort as a percentage of the overall population, then we need toaddress issues of caring for them before that day arrives. If we can document populationtrends moving to a certain area or state, that previously was not well populated, thenaddressing population-related problems before they hit is simply good policy foresight.Notice, that this type of thinking is not requiring an econometric model or a mathematicalmodel—but it does require being able to look at data and use it in ways that can help withreasonable forecasting. This first assignment addresses readings that raise issues associatedwith forecasting—an introduction to the issue.Based on these readings how do you look at forecasting.1)  should be double-spaced and a minimum of five pages2) I do want you to discuss specifics from the readings. Notice that you can begin to lookat different aspects of forecasting, such as using demographics.

 

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